Florida Republicans Brace as the Early Vote Sags - and the Panhandle Is the Softest Spot
Florida's early vote is making Republicans nervous two days before Election Day: their statewide early lead is just 2.8 points despite an 11-point registration edge, and the weakest turnout in the state is right here in the Panhandle.
Florida Republicans expected a comfortable fall. Instead, the early vote has left party veterans, in one elder's word to ENM News, 'white-knuckled' heading into Tuesday. As of Saturday afternoon, Republicans were ahead of Democrats by just 2.8 percentage points in early votes cast - a much thinner margin than in the last two general elections, and one that comes despite a roughly 11-point Republican registration advantage across the state.
The soft spot is Northwest Florida. ENM News reports the weakest Republican performance is showing up in the Panhandle and rural North Florida, including many of the 17 counties that Byron Donalds, the Republican nominee for governor, lost in his party's primary. In those counties, Republican turnout is running 3.2 points below 2022 levels, according to University of Florida political scientist Michael McDonald; in counties Donalds carried, the drop is smaller, at 1.1 points below 2022. Democrats, meanwhile, have already surpassed their entire 2022 early and mail vote total in 15 counties, while Republicans have done so in four - and among active registered Democrats under 30, one quarter have already voted, compared with 9 percent of Republicans in that age group.
The math is why the nerves are real. About two-thirds of Florida voters usually cast ballots before Election Day, and internal Democratic and Republican estimates shared with Axios put Donalds as many as 500,000 votes behind by Tuesday - a hole he would need to win Election Day by roughly two to one to escape, despite a fundraising edge of $176 million to Democrat David Jolly's $28 million. The state party's public line is confidence. 'We always win Election Day, and we know how to do this,' State GOP chair Evan Power said. Whether the Panhandle's habitual Republican voters deliver that surge on Tuesday is now one of the state's central questions.
